Can Agile help with predictability? Many teams feel it can’t, but I think this reflects a lack of fluency on the part of those teams, not anything fundamental to Agile. I tackled this question on my Art of Agile blog today:
It’s entirely possible to make predictions with Agile. They’re just as good as predictions made with other methods, and with XP practices, they can be much better. Agile leaders talk about embracing change because that has more potential value than making predictions.
Software is inherently unpredictable. So is the weather. Forecasts (predictions) are possible in both situations, given sufficient rigor. How your team approaches predictions depends on what level of fluency they have.
Read the whole essay here.